GETTING AHEAD WITH TONY BLAIR: IT IS NOT WHAT YOU KNOW. IT IS NOT WHO YOU KNOW. IT IS ABOUT WHO YOU 'YES.'

We've seen it before in business, government, and the professions. The inept and incompetent moving from one disaster of their own making, to the next - promoted all the way as a result of powerful and influential friends. Not because of competence or success in the last position held. But because of the tender loving care from people in high places, who may value loyalty to the exclusion of all other traits, or who put a premium on pedigree or social status to the exclusion of ability, record of success, or even intelligence.

The name of Robert S. McNamara comes to mind. The wunderkind Eagle Scout, Harvard MBA, and Ford Motor Company CEO who trashed the Edsel - so far so good - together with his boss LBJ, embraced the Domino Theory of third world countries going communist. The result was the build up of American forces in Vietnam, the subsequent 9 years American participation in a civil war, the millions of casualties among innocent Vietnamese, Cambodians and young Americans. Finally, there was the admission of failure. There was defeat and abandonment of the cause. His reward: President of the World Bank.

Similarly there is the career of Henry Kissinger. Harvard Scholar and Professor, National Security Advisor and Secretary of State in the Nixon and Ford Administrations, Kissinger bears the dubious distinction of being behind the bombing of Cambodia during the Viet Nam War. The direct result was the Cambodian civil war, from which the Khmer Rouge emerged victorious. The aftermath was a genocide of several million innocent Cambodians. He was behind CIA support in bringing to power General Pinochet in Chile. He actively supported the Argentina's dirty war carried out by the Military Junta. His travel is so restricted, for fear of arrest for war crimes, that for years he has traveled outside the United States only with the utmost caution. The result: a lengthy list of Corporate Directorships, including the infamous Hollinger International (where he too paid little attention to the financial statements), and an advisory capacity with George W. Bush, rendering advice on how to deal with Iraq!

More recently, we have the case of Paul Wolfowitz, the notoriously infamous neocon Deputy Secretary of Defence, who was one of the architects of the disasterous invasion of Iraq and its consequences, the greatest military misadventure in the history of the United States. His reward: like McNamara, President of the World Bank. He has since had to resign because he was caught using his influence getting his banker girlfriend a sweetheart job deal. What's next for him? A nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize?

Canada is somewhat less forgiving of real or perceived ineptitude. When John Turner failed to inspire the masses as Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, he returned to a modest private law practice, and significant corporate directorships eluded him. Equally with ex-Alberta Premier Don Getty, when he left office after a less than stellar performance as Premier. However there is the exceptional case of Premier Ed Stelmach of Alberta. Although it may sound incongruous mentioning his name in such lofty company, by Canadian standards his career should have been torpedoed as a result of his dismal performance as Infrastructure Minister, Transportation Minister and member of the Agenda and Priorities Committee in the Alberta government. Instead, the Tory rank and file rewarded him with the Party Leadership and Premiership. It will take his forthcoming fall in the next provincial election to put Ed in his rightful place of Canadian politicians who screwed up.

And in recent days we have the strange case of Tony Blair. Charming, charismatic, and bright, Blair was in the early part of his career as Prime Minister, highly popular in the country. Although his record at this early point in history appears to be somewhat pedestrian, his policies included a greater reliance on market forces, and more spending on health and education. He admirably played a significant role in the Northern Ireland Peace process.

Blair's downfall was his slavish support of the policies of George W. Bush in respect to the unwinnable Iraq war. In his country, he appeared to be a patsy or handmaiden to the widely disliked President. He embellished existing intelligence on Sadam's WMD capability, the basis of which proved to be false. He indulged in identical Bushite rhetoric in support of Britain and the United States' role in the conflict, all of which further diminished his standing in the eyes of his people, who increasingly opposed the war. In most of the Arab world he became as much of an anathema as his ally Bush. He was ultimately hounded from office by the British people and his party.

Blair's reward: an appointment as Middle East Envoy for the United Nations, approved by the European Union and Russia (one wonders how and why), and, of course, by the United States (which is quite understandable). He botched Iraq. Instead of letting him mercifully pass into history, his pals give him another chance. This time he may botch the rest of the Middle East.

SPECIAL ED THROWS CALGARY A BONE (AND A SMALL ONE AT THAT)

It has now sunk in to anybody with half a brain who follows Alberta politics, that Special Ed and his Vegreville Gothic Tories have a huge problem in Alberta cities. It is trite to say that Special Ed and his government of farm hands brought it on all by themselves with the spiteful and juvenile transfer of power from Alberta's cities to rural settlements and communities when he formed his first cabinet. This was the result of the Special Ed crew being bound and determined to have their day in the sun after their boy, in December, beat Calgarian Jim Dinning for the leadership of the Tory Party.

Dinning was a symbol of everything Special Ed and his gang wanted buried. He was smooth, urbane, educated, and connected to a Calgary corporate and political establishment, that had enormous influence in Provincial Governments continuously since Peter Lougheed knocked off the Socreds in 1971. In the view of Ed and his pals, the effete and pampered cities - particularly wealthy, arrogant, and oil drenched Calgary - were out.

Boy, did Special Ed and his boys really want to stick it in the cities' ear. And boy, did they. In Special Ed's first cabinet, from Edmonton, a city that boasted 1/3 of Alberta's population, there was only one cabinet Minister out of a cabinet of 18. This was down from 3. And from the detested Calgary, also having 1/3 of the population, there were 3 Ministers out of 18 - down from 7.

Special Ed and his range riders shure showed those cities who was boss.

Yep, they shure did. In 6 months time, Special Ed would see his party's popularity in freefall as well as the loss of Ralph's Klein's seat in Calgary Elbow to the Liberals.

Something had to be done. And by jiminy, Special Ed was decisive if he was anything. He had to make Calgary and Edmonton feel a part of his government again. He had to mend fences and fast. So he and the boys got together and came up with a solution. Bring a couple of Calgary ladies almost to the cabinet table by making them associate ministers, add a former Edmonton Liberal turncoat to an almost minster associate minister, and give one of the two guys with real brains in the cabinet, who happens to be from Calgary, the Deputy Premiership - a position that because of his comparative sharp intellect amongst his pygmy-like colleagues, he for all practical purposes occupies already.

So, the lucky Calgary ladies are the toothsome Cindy Ady, the new associate minister of Tourism, and the longtime silent MLA Yvonne Fritz, the new associate minister of Affordable Housing. Justice Minister Ron Stevens of Calgary Glenmore is the new Deputy Premier. On the Edmonton side, former Education Minister and Liberal turncoat, Gene Zwozdesky has now been elevated to the lofty role of associate minister of Capital Planning.

Will it turn Special Ed's luck around? Not bloody likely. The appointments are tokenism and nothing more. This was reflected last evening at Mayor Bronconnier's super fundraiser on the grounds of La Caille Restaurant in downtown Calgary. The guest list of 1700 or so was a who's who in business and professional circles at $200 bucks a pop. They were the type of people that used to be the backbone of the Tory party of the old days. As Alberta Liberal Leader Kevin Taft and his four Calgary Liberal MLAs worked the crowd, they were greeted by friendly smiles, hearty hand shakes, and plenty of friendly advisors all around. There wasn't a Tory MLA in sight - little wonder since Bronco has been bashing them for some months now. So its got to be back to the drawing board for Special Ed. His move was precious little and already, very late.

Ominously, for Ed, it was whispered about that, alas, Fritz and Ady were not the first Calgary Tory MLAs who were offered those posts. Apparently, a few other sitting Calgary MLAs were offered the new posts before the offers were made to the lucky winners. They of course, had done the wise thing. They turned the offers down.

TALLADEGA NIGHTMARES: THE BALLAD OF STEVIE HARPIE (WITH APOLOGIES TO WILL FERRELL)

Shurely, we've seen enough proof that the government of Bush's pal Steve Harper is out of touch, out of synch, out of step and living in the neocon past of the dumb and dumber era of his idol, G.W. Bush. Shurely!


I mean, it had its own mini Abu Ghraib in Afghanistan. The military brass and the government turned a blind eye to the dark fate of detainees in the hands of the notorious Afghan security service. They then followed the tried and failed Nixon/Libby/Bushite policy of covering it up and lying about it. That, too, was exposed, giving rise to the tired policy of lies, bravado and obfuscation about our role in Afghanistan and how well it is doing - actions identical to those of the Bush administration in the wake of its disasterous Iraq adventure.

It grovelled to Quebec at Budget time not unlike Bush has grovelled to his rich pals at his Budget time. It blindly followed Bush in the abandonment of an even handed Middle East strategy. Like the United States under Bush, Canada under Harper could no longer be a credible broker of a peace in that tragic region, nor have any credibility for peace-keeping there, if and when it is required. The Harperites have pushed and tried to bully the Opposition and the Provinces just as Bush and his neocon cohorts, again to the detriment of his country, have pushed and tried to bully his country's former allies and the United Nations.


Harper's Conservatives have played hardball with negative advertising and personal attacks which appear to have been designed and created by the destructive mind of Dr. Evil himself, Karl Rove.


And where has it all led? All of this blind endorsement of the policies and tactics of someone who is destined to be considered as one of the great political disasters in modern history? It is turning out to be a very sad story indeed. Bush's pal Steve Harper's government's popularity has dwindled to less than 30% support of the electorate - just about the dismal level as Bush's approval ratings in the United States.

I mean, don't they get it?

Apparently not. Just as the Bushites thought they discovered nascent Republican storm troopers in the Stock Car speedways of the United States, the Harper Conservatives have decided once again that they should follow Bush's lead. And they are going one step further. They are sponsoring a car in the Canadian NASCAR circuit!

But that's not all. The car, a sleek white job with great big blue Conservative logos on its hood and side panels, is a leaded gas guzzler of the highest order. It consumes 125 gallons of the stuff in a 250 mile race. This speaks volumes on the Conservatives' commitments to emissions reductions or, for that matter, the whole environment.

And more yet. The sponsored car is driven by Pierre Bourque, operator of the website 'Bourque Newswatch,' a cyber-rag noted for its tailoring of news headlines at every opportunity to make Harper and the Conservatives look good and Dion and the Grits look bad. In other words, with this sponsorship deal, the Conservatives are paying Bourque off to get good media publicity. Another tried and true Karl Rove strategy.

So what else does Bush's pal Steve Harper and his cronys get out of all of this? Only the Canadian bubba, red-neck, and cracker vote - and they have had that sewed up for years already.

But their stated intentions seem to be ostensibly more ambitious than merely to kiss Bourque's backside and sew up the crackers. They are out to get Grit, Green and NDP middle class votes.

Listen to Immigration Minister Diane Finley's pitch at the race track yesterday when the Conservative car was introduced. "This is a way for the Conservatives to tap into that growing following," she said. "It's getting harder and harder to reach people through the regular media," she opined (she must have been tempted to add, 'particularly when Mr. Harper displays such contempt for it'). She went on, "Fewer people are watching the network news . . . fewer people are reading the newspapers. So we have to find new advertising outlets to reach them, to get our message through." She continued, "And the people who follow NASCAR are our kind of people. They're hard-working families, they're taxpayers who play by the rules. And those are the people we're targeting."


In other words, what the Harper Conservatives are saying is that since the broad middle class of Canadians don't follow the news or even read newspapers, the Conservatives will damn well induce them to support their cause by entering a car into the NASCAR circuit.

Come on. Even the NASCAR fans in the States have figured Bush out. The G.O.P. these days couldn't grow their support at a NASCAR race any more than they could in New Orleans. And if anything, Canadians are more cynical towards politicians than Americans. A politician in Canada throwing out the first ball of the season is more likely to be booed off the field than cheered. A Conservative logoed car - indeed, any car that bears the colors and logo of any Canadian political party - entered in a Canadian NASCAR race, is likely to be greeted not only by jeers and hisses, but all kinds of nefarious actions up to and including sabotage. Canadians will see it for what it is. An attempt at manipulation.



Anyway, for Stevie Harpy (with apologies to Will Ferrell) it is all for naught. Just as the American middle class has figured out Bush, so too are the Canadian people figuring out Stevie Harpy. As a result of this fiasco, look for a further reduction of Stevie's numbers.

There isn't any number of NASCAR entries that can save Bush or Harper, whether they are in the United States, Canada or Timbuktu.

THE TIMES THEY ARE A-CHANGIN'

I was at the University of Calgary University Club on Thursday for a Faculty luncheon, the purpose of which was to recognize volunteers who had made a contribution to academic activities and studies at the University (which usually means those recognized helped to raise money). It was one of those sedate and proper events where behaviour is genteel and reserved, and talk is measured and civilized. Present were a few faculty members and staff, some show-case students, and several men and women from business and professional circles.

What seemed to be the preponderence of the attendees were many aging, and obviously successful business men together with their loyal and faithful (and probably more than a few long suffering) wives. This latter group, well into their twilight years, have the look of being comfortable in the knowledge that for them the rat race was well-nigh over and they are quite satisfied with where they finished in the pack. In other words, since it was taking place in Calgary, it was mostly a Conservative Party gathering. Or so it seemed.

Although the room seemed more appropriate to a cup of tea, I remained true to my principles and took instead a glass of good Merlot, and entered into conversation with several of the attendees who were milling about before the speeches. The talk turned to the by-election in Calgary Elbow where two days before the Liberals landed their first victory ever and for the first time increased their city standings in the Legislature to four members. This group of Conservatives were happy with the victory. None of them could in fact stomach Stelmach (now, there's a line!). According to them - still speaking in the measured and sober manner as befitted the occasion - he had done nothing as Premier, had neglected the cities and was not up to the job. This Taft fellow looked pretty good to them.

The talk then drifted to Stephen Harper. Whereas the name 'Stelmach' seemed to stir up little emotion amongst our group, it was quite another matter when the name 'Harper' entered the conversation. Smiles turned into frowns. What were friendly and affable eyes, turned fierce and angry. "That liar," uttered a fuming and animated, quite formidable senior lady, who a few moments ago appeared and behaved as everybody's favorite grandmother. "He's broken so many promises," uttered another gentleman. "Look how he has cuddled up to Quebec," remarked another. Another stated, "I've never been a Liberal. I've been a Progressive Conservative, I was in the Reform, the Alliance and supported the new Conservative Party and voted for Harper. But never again!" Nods of approval all around.

I suspected, although did not confirm, that their anger was probably related to Harper's senseless flip-flop on income trusts, which adversely affected retirees with some money in much greater numbers than other Canadians. They had seen a good part of their net worth disappear forever with a stroke of the Harper pen. He broke his word and squandered the support of this formerly loyal and reliable segment of the Conservative constituency. Judging from their comments - if they were representative of their class, and I suspect they were - they will not return to the fold in time for the next election. If ever.

A Decima poll released June 12, had the Grits ahead of the Conservatives, 32 to 29, with the NDP at 18 and the BQ and Greens tied at 9 each. Liberals led the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada 38 to 31, and Ontario 39 to 33. In Quebec, although the Bloc led with 38, the Grits were ahead of the Tories 23 to 16.

Take my word for it. Stevie is going down. Prime Minister Dion, ah, it has a nice sound to it, doesn't it?

SPECIAL ED'S BEGINNING OF THE END

The Tories lost Calgary Elbow Tuesday night and probably for a very long time. They had held it since its inception in 1971. Not only that, over the years they tweaked it, twisted it, revised it, replotted it, and carved it, so that a solid Tory vote would always be assured for their MLA, Ralph Klein. Klein was first elected as a Tory in Calgary Elbow in 1989 and became Premier in 1993. The gerrymandering of the Riding was a work of art, really. A text-book example of political manipulation.

Despite all of this conniving, Special Ed in only six incredibly inept months of power has left the masterpiece in tatters. Elbow now belongs to Craig Cheffins, and the Alberta Liberal Party. For those who count, Cheffins' victory puts 4 seats in the Grit column in Calgary. The last time Calgary had 4 Liberal seats was in . . . . . wow! They've never had 4 seats in Calgary. Ever.

There were several reasons why Cheffins scored his victory. First of all, Cheffins was a first class candidate. He has a strong likeability factor. He was able to easily frame and discuss the issues and stayed 'on message.' The message - 'Send the Government a message.' Cheffins, his wife and many friends were tireless door campaigners. He also had a strong history of community service. Furthermore, Grits from the four corners of the city together with the three Calgary Grit MLA's elected in the general Election of 1984 and their organizations, worked the doors night after night identifying the Liberal vote. Cheffins' Election Day organization took care of the rest.

But that is only part of the story. Leader of the Alberta Liberal Party Kevin Taft has a been a workhorse since his election as Leader in the spring of 2004. By reason of the strength of his considerable intellect, his methodical step-by step building of the Party, and the consistent and effective legislative performance of he and his fellow MLA's, he must also share the kudos for the victory.

And then of course, we must not discount the effect on the election of Special Ed and his government of small-minded and vengeful rural-based Tories.

Stelmach's government has done virtually nothing since its election. There are many Tories who support this non-action. There are many neanderthals in the Tory government and caucus who still cling to the minimalist theories of the neocon movement that emerged during the Klein years. That view holds that the people of Alberta are dyed in the wool conservatives who don't want government to spend their money or interfere with their lives for good or bad under almost any circumstances.

This view was reflected by the Tories throughout their campaign right up to the last day. Ron Liepert, Minister of Education, announced that because of the soaring loonie, provincial revenues would be down and therefore people shouldn't expect much in the way of new schools. Not to be outscrimped, Minister of Advanced Education Doug Horner, said that the same held true with respect to the earlier Klein commitment of adding more spaces for students at the University of Calgary. The government , said Horner, needed more time to look at the costs of this commitment so, - again - don't expect much in the forseeable future. Wide spread support for this minimalist view amongst Calgarians may have been 5 years ago, or even 3 years ago, but not today. Too many families have been adversely impacted by a lack of what they need.

Thus, the good burghers of Elbow were looking to the government to do something - about schools, universities, hospitals, and housing. The popular Mayor Bronconnier had taken the pulse of the city and knew that was the mood. He left no opportunity go by to publicly lambaste the government for breaking a commitment to provide no-strings-attached funding for necessary capital and infrastructure projects. After all, Bronco is running for re-election in the fall. His withering attacks took their toll, as did the mindless counterattacks led by the likes of David Rodney, Tory caucus Chair and Sustainable Development and Environment Minister Ted Morton.

Stelmach's announcement that his government was going to build and pay for a new hospital in the south part of the city was widely regarded as cynical. It had been promised by the Tories for about a decade with absolutely no concrete headway having been made since that time, while the costs of the project soared. He got no points for that.

And then there was the pathetically weak public persona of Special Ed himself. He continues to be a dreary, sometimes tongue-tied communicator. He has the demeanor of a man without intensity or passion, who cannot control his bickering caucus, and who continues to stumble along without a plan.

The result: Grits took almost half of the vote - 48.8%, up by more than 12 % from their performance in 2004. The Tories took 38.14% of the vote, down by about 13.5 % since 2004. Oh yes, in 2004 more than 3000 more people voted than in this by-election. Thus, enough Tories moved to the Grits, and enough Tories, those who perhaps couldn't stomach the Grits, stayed home. The result was a Grit victory.

The Stelmach government is reeling. It seems that it is blindly staggering about, hoping vainly for a return of the old days, when Albertans voted Tory regardless of how inept and incompetent they were. Those days are gone. If there is no improvement in the government's performance - and given the talent in the caucus and the upper echelons of the public service, there is not likely to be any improvement - well, get ready to greet Premier Kevin Taft after the next general election. And you can say you heard it here first.

SPECIAL ED: BEING BATTERED IN A BY- ELECTION

As the by-election in Calgary Elbow reaches its climax, Special Ed is pulling out all the stops Tory-wise. Alas, there are not too many to pull.

One was the soon-to-be-forgotten Jim Dinning. The Tories surprisingly recruited Dinning for a little campaigning in Calgary Elbow. It was 'a little campaigning' alright. A feeble, nanno-second, photo-op door knock in the riding. That was about the only good news for the Tories in Calgary Elbow in recent days.

Apparently the still battered and bleeding Dinning, who fell during Special Ed's Hayseed Revolution last December in his bid to replace Klein, still feels some loyalty to the party that gave him the boot, notwithstanding his years of loyal and faithful service to the cause. Then again, maybe it was Dinning's last hurrah and he wanted to go out with some class - an attribute largely missing among Special Ed's forces.

The Premier had the usual Tory gall to use government operating cash for a late election propaganda pamphlet. To the tune of about $200,000 of taxpayer money, the government published a mail-out to show 1.3 million Alberta households just how much loot is being spent by Special Ed's team on Calgary and Alberta generally. Tom Olsen, now one of Eddie's in-house press flacks after years of working for the Klein government by writing his Calgary Herald Legislature column, told the public that the pamphlet was really no big deal. These "non-partisan" communications went out 3 times a year to show how government is working for Albertans, said Olsen. As his nose became more extended, Special Ed's Pinnochio said blithely, "Its got nothing to do with by-elections."

The Premier continued his campaigning by resorting to another traditional Tory election goodie - hospitals. He announced - for the fourth time - that the Tory government would pay for the new hospital in the south part of the city.
The construction of this hospital has a depressing, boring and irksome history. Back in 1998 when Ralph was in the midst of his deficit and debt reduction mayhem, blowing-up and closing down hospitals, he said that the hospital should be built 'fairly quickly.' In 2004 he presided over a ground breaking ceremony. In 2005, Ralph's government promised to pay the 500 million or so cost of it. Just 3 months ago in March, Special Ed promised to pay the full shot of 900 million. And now, Ed says once again that his government will pay the full cost - which now stands at $1.25 billion. He also says that it will be complete by 2011, 13 years after Ralph said it should be built 'fairly quickly.' And he is using this commitment on the by-election hustings in Calgary Elbow to attract votes. Strange, you say? Yes, indeed, strange! And stranger still, if the good burghers of Calgary Elbow fall for it.

In the meantime, uber-mountaineer and now Tory caucus chair, David Rodney continues to pummel away at Mayor Bronco. The two-time Everest conqueror told outstanding Calgary Sun columnist Bill Kaufmann during an interview that when people meet Special Ed, "they're instantly won over." About Bronco he opined that the Mayor was causing Tory approval ratings to go down because he wasn't grateful enough or obedient to the Tories. He also said that the Mayor's behaviour was such that he, Rodney, was having a hard time having a professional relationship with him - i.e. Bronco is unprofessional. One wonders if Rodney's personal attacks on a popular Mayor during a crucial by-election might be a manifestation of some high altitude vascular accident in his brain.

The week ended with Ed's neocon Sustainable Resource Development Minister, Ted Morton and Education Minister Ron Leipert making matters much worse. Morton revved up the battle with Bronco with a speech in Banff to some municipal leaders. Morton had the temerity to say that "Calgary by itself is a good, but not a great city." The Mayor, once again livid with righteous indignation, replied that Morton ". . . stood up there and ripped our city. . . . Calgary is a great city and I am offended." Of course, Morton could not leave the matter rest. He responded, "This shows the source of a lot of these polemics is a mayor who is far too thin-skinned." Naturally, the melee led to lurid headlines. The Herald Saturday edition of June 9 headline was: Mayor takes Tories to task." Not helpful at all.

Nor was it helpful to Special Ed and the Tories when Education Minister Ron Leipert announced that because of rising costs, and the rising value of the loonie, the province was feeling a financial strain. Thus, the people of Calgary should not expect too much in the way of new school construction. Lack of schools in new subdivisions has been a critical problem for some time now. With no end in sight, parents of small children who are bussed long distances every day are, and will be in the forseeable future, bloody angry.

In the end there was another piece of what could be interpreted as good news for the Premier. His predecessor, mentor, and patron Ralph Klein had a slough named after him. Oh, they call it a Park. Ralph Klein Park. But it is 30 hectares located in the 225 hectare Shepard Wetlands, located in south-east Calgary near the City limits. And so, its a slough.

And if that is the best thing that can happen to the Tories on the cusp of the Elbow by-election, well, I think Special Ed is going to lose this one. On Tuesday, look to Liberal Craig Cheffins taking Ralph's old riding away from the Tories.

AESOP COMES TO CANADA

It wasn't supposed to be this way.

The Federal Grits, divided and at war - with Grits - with gaping, bleeding, largely self-inflicted wounds. The wretched odor of Adscam apparently permeating deep into the Canadian landscape. Grits broke and Conservatives flush. Grits in the sloughs of despond. Conservatives cheerfully aloft, setting sail for what was sure to be their era in the sun.

The Grits, out of power and with a new leader - a serious and austere ex-Prof, struggling with the Queen's English, broadly berated and ridiculed even by the political literati, cognisenti and glitterati of his own Province.

The Conservatives, basking still in their minority victory of January 2006, with an apparently young, organized, and decisive man in motion leading his team of new eager young men and women, prepared and ready to take the country in a new and exciting direction. Ah, they thought, just a few more yards to the majority government finish line. No photo finish this time. The only thing that will be finished will be the Grits.

Unhappily for Bush's pal Steve Harper, it is not turning out that way.

The great unravelling began with the Conservative about face on the income trust issue. It continued with the billions of dollars of bribe money given to Quebec in the last budget. It gathered speed with the disaster of the detainee issue in Afghanistan and accusations of a coverup, together with the gargantuan and the continued ineptitude of Defence Minister Gordon O'Connor. And then, further into the mire with Harper's feeble greenhouse gas policy flogged by his pushy, frat boy pit bull John Baird, more suited to managing the beer machine than selling any kind of a policy.

Hovering over all of this was and is the obvious (some would say odious) ideological love affair between the Prime Minister and probably the most detested and inept western leader in recent memory - G. W. Bush. Not to mention, the Prime Minister's bent for surly and extreme partisanship and Joe McCarthy-like allegations trashing the integrity and motives of Opposition members together with his disdain for the press.

The result of this potent, kool-aid cocktail of incompetence and hubris is a series of polls that put the Grits and Conservatives neck and neck, with the Bloc not wanting to play Jack Kevorkian in the Commons and no Party wanting a quick election. Not yet, in any event.

In the meantime, Stephane Dion continues to slowly and steadily hone and develop his skills. This past weekend, he wooed a couple of hundred local Grits at a fund raising dinner in Calgary. He spoke slowly and clearly to an impressed and rapt audience as he set forth his vision of Canada under a Dion Government. He was joined by his wife Janine Krieber, a solid and brainy politician in her own right, who charmed the crowd.

The next day in a speech to the Federation of Canadian Municipalities conference, he promised to help Canadian municipalities reduce a 100 million dollar infrastructure deficit, with some long-term planning and the permanent transfer of the federal gas tax. Dion's speech earned him three standing ovations.

Is it Aesop or Hans Christian Anderson? Is Dion the Turtoise, and Harper the Hare? Or is Dion the Ugly Duckling becoming a swan? Take your pick. But Dion will be the Prime Minister after the next election.

KEVIN TAFT: ON THE MOVE

For Special Ed, these are tough times. Brutal, in fact. For the past couple of weeks, with a single exception, its been all bad news. Indeed, he picked up plenty of speed going down the steep incline towards the Harry Strom world of political oblivion.

Calgary's Mayor Bronco continued his deft attack against Special Ed's double cross on what should have been no-strings infrastructure money to Calgary.
Surprisingly, Eddie's Calgary Tory Caucus Chair David Rodney, MLA for Calgary Lougheed was caught stumbling in the wake of the Bronco onslaught. Rodney blamed obvious Tory difficulties in Calgary to Bronco's attacks on municipal funding. He also accused the Mayor of misleading Calgarians on the issue in an effort to get the Government to knuckle under to his demands. Rodney added loftily that, "He [Bronco] needs to remember he's the mayor of Calgary, he's not his (sic) majesty's loyal opposition." Pouring more gasoline on the fire, Rodney said the Mayor was betraying Calgarians by sabotaging the efforts of Calgary Tory MLA's. Bronco, for his part, rose in righteous indignation to demand Rodney cease the 'personal attacks,' and work to solve the problem. Rodney's whining was surprising for a formerly sure-footed, two-time conqueror of Mount Everest cum gung-ho motivational speaker. Happily for him he stumbled at the low altitudes of the Alberta prairies rather than at 28000 feet.

Finance Minister Lyle Oberg continued his reckless musings by implying that that the Task Force looking into the adequacy of oil and gas royalties going into Government coffers would likely decide that they were fine. According to Oberg, because of high cost inflation in exploration and development, the oil companies just would probably not be able to pay any more. Hence, the obvious question - why bother continuing with the Task Force? Ministers had to clean up the motormouth's mess so that the Task Force could continue to stumble to what the oil barons are sure to see as a positive and just outcome.

In the meantime, formerly friendly editorial boards of the major print media are becoming increasingly bellicose and threatening of the Special Ed squad. Columnist Rick Bell of the Calgary Sun has been on the Government's case for a long time. But he is now being joined by the likes of the Edmonton Sun's Neil Waugh.

And to add to Eddie's woes, Cameron Strategies, a market research firm headed by political strategist Bruce Cameron who honed his skills with the Angus Reid firm for many years, released some polling results. The Tories could only regard them as bleak. In the formerly unassailable Tory bastion of Calgary, Special Ed's team had dropped 19 points from January to May - to a measly 40%. In Edmonton, the news was hardly better - the Tories had dropped 8 points to 42%. Worse yet, Ed's disapproval rating in Cowtown had jumped from 18% to 39%. That last number, Cameron colorfully described as the 'first shoe dropping.'

The only good news for the Tories was Health Minister Dave Hancock's announcement that he had convinced the Government to finally ban smoking in public places and work sites, as well as to restrict the number of establishments that may sell tobacco products. Not only did Hancock accomplish this over the strenuous objections of many in the Tory caucus, it is the only coherent piece of important legislation brought forth so far by the Government since Special Ed took power.

In the meantime on the by-election front, Grit candidate Craig Cheffins' campaign to win Ralph Klein's old riding in Calgary Elbow, is humming along nicely. Grit troops from throughout the City and some from as far away as Edmonton are busily knocking on doors, the red signs are out in abundance and the money is rolling in. In Drumheller-Stettler, Tom Dooley, a popular rancher from the riding who pilots his own plane, has his whole family out in force as well as his many friends and supporters. He too senses change in the air, as he cheerfully scours the large riding for Grit support.

And just this Wednesday past, Leader Kevin Taft spoke to 400 of the faithful at a fund-raising dinner at downtown Calgary's Hyatt Regency. His message was simple, effective, thoughtful and well received, and - not to mention - timely. According to Taft, it was high time an Alberta Government had a plan - a plan to manage our wealth for present and future generations. How was it, he asked, that even though the Provincial Government have spent 93% of all oil and gas royalties that it has received in the last 25 years, we still lack schools, hospitals, roads, and affordable housing? And where were the policies on land use, a dwindling water supply and proper municipal funding?

There were Grits in the crowd alright. But there were plenty of old Tories. And they were listening carefully, and clapped vigorously at the end. This is not a dream. It is happening. Special Ed's nightmares continue.

ON THE ROAD: TO DAMASCUS

The title to this blog has nothing whatever to do with St. Paul or a Crosby-Hope Road flick of the 1940's. Instead, it is about my recent adventure in the Middle East.


I hope you noticed my absence from the blogosphere for the past several days. Given the rapid pace that Special Ed and Bush's pal Steve Harper are destroying their respective leaderships and governments, I just had to take a breather.


Well, if not a breather, at least a pleasant change. I have just returned from Damascus. Not Damascus, Saskatchewan. No Siree. I mean the real McCoy - Damascus, Syria - the ancient, mysterious, fascinating, oft-criticized pivotal Middle Eastern city of one of the most important Middle Eastern countries, in a region fraught with danger, intrigue and violence, none of which I observed. The pursuit of the elusive black liquid took me there. Unlike St. Paul, I did not have a conversion on the road. I remain what I was before I boarded the plane -I'll leave it to you to fill whatever you think is the appropriate expletive deleted that defines me.

The voyage to Damascus from Calgary is a long one. My colleagues and I stopped in London after an 8 and a half hour flight to shower and catch a few hours in the city via the very efficient and very fast train (it takes about 15 minutes) into Paddington Station from Heathrow. A few hours later we boarded a British Airways jet for the 6 and a half hour flight to Damascus via a short stop in Ankara. We arrived at our destination in the wee small hours of the morning, a calendar day and a half after our departure from home. There is a 9 hour time difference between Calgary and Damascus. It is not a short hop.

Syria in recent years has taken a pummelling in the western press. Much has been said about its repressive regime, its alleged harboring of terrorists, its jails and murky justice system, and so forth. That is not the side of the country that I observed in Damascus. Admittedly, the trip was short - about 6 days - and so there remains much for me to experience and learn about the place hopefully a next time.

Damascus is big. There are 4.5 million plus people, spread over a broad valley below Mount Qasioun, the site that Muslims believe was where Cain murdered Abel. The panoramic view of the city from Mount Qasioun is a dramatic one, and gives emphasis to the vastness and power of the metropolitan area. There are several restaurants near the top of the mountain from which diners can eat and drink while absorbing the dramatic view at the steep mountain's edge. Housing has crept up the mountain side over the years. It now includes even squatters who have built their crude, ramshackle cement block dwellings with million dollar views from precipitous angles to the valley and city below. At night, the view of the lights of the densely settled side of the mountain from the city is equally wondrous.

Damascus is old. It is so old that it is widely acknowledged to be the oldest continuously occupied city in the world. It has been inhabited as a human settlement since at least 8000 years BC. Some say, it goes back as far as 10,000 BC. Therefore, there is plenty of antiquity. Because my time was limited I barely scratched the surface of its many historical wonders. However, I did walk through parts of the old city with its warren of narrow lanes and interesting shops, restaurants and cramped ancient homes. I visited the famous enclosed Al-Hamidieh Market with its many wares and antiques, and sampled a generous helping of sherbet-like Arabic ice cream (bouzat haleeb). Nearby I entered the serene Omayyad Mosque which dates back to the 8th century. The Mosque contains the heads of John the Baptist and Hussein, son of Ali. The ornate Minaret of Jesus is located at the Mosque. It is said to be the place where Jesus will appear on Judgement Day.

Much of Damascus is modern. There are many chic neighborhoods, as befits a city with a prosperous and growing middle class. Construction standards are clearly not what they are in the west and some of the inferior workmanship is readily apparent. Nonetheless, there are some very impressive buildings. One of the most prominent is (what used to be until recently) Canada's own Four Seasons Hotel. It is a tall, imposing building of white stone of perhaps 25 or so stories attached to a large shopping area in the same style. It is well-located in the inner city business district and the best hotel in town.

As Arab cities go, Damascus is a liberal city. The vigorous nightlife came as a surprise to me. Outstanding restaurants abound, as well as a goodly number of well-frequented bars and discos. I was reminded that the current Baathist regime led by the Al-Assad family is a secular one. Islam is not the official religion of the state, quite unlike other Arab nations in the region. Christians, mostly Catholic, comprise about 10% of the population and live in relative harmony with the Muslim community, which is 75% Sunni, with the rest divided among the Alawi, Druze and Shia. Ethnically, 90% are Arab and 10% among other groups, the main ones being Kurds and Armenians.

The Al-Assad family are from the minority Alawi sect. Our hosts told us that Syria did not have a problem with the Jewish people, but rather the Zionist state. However, they looked forward to an ultimate negotiated and honorable settlement with Israel. Given that they were sophisticated and respected businessmen with significant commercial interests who have prospered during recent times of relative stability in their country, I had no trouble taking them at their word.

I had occasion to dine out at two great Arab restaurants in the old city - 'Oxygen' and 'Old City.' Both are part of a group of a hundred or so very old houses in old Damascus that have in recent years been converted to fashionable restaurants, the design of which gives full measure to the exotic Arabic style. Given that Damascans still live by the generous siesta in the afternoons, things get started late. Most people show up for dinner at 10 or later. Live entertainment with Arabic singers and musicians generally begins at 11. For the next several hours, guests stuff themselves with the best of nuts, pickles, pita bread, hummus, salads, grilled lamb and chicken . . . . and other equally delicious morsels, all tastefully spiced and excellent in every way. Wine and cocktails flow freely, all of which I ingested liberally, dare I say. Water pipes (hookahs, or hubbly bubblies) are always present, the scented tobacco smells from which seemed far less oppressive than what I remember of cigarette smoke back home in the old days.

We were hosted in an exemplary way by our hosts and future business colleagues. With them we happily sampled some of the night life into the wee small hours and visited officials of the Government, as well as Canada's Ambassador to Syria. During those moments when we did not talk business we talked openly about politics.

The current Baathist regime of the Al-Assad family began in 1970 as a result of a coup d'etat led by Hafez Al-Assad, upon whose death in 2000, was succeeded by his son Bashar. Syria's turbulent history is bloody and violent. Before the mid 7th century and the coming of the Muslims, the country had been ruled by Aramaeans, Babylonians, Greeks under Alexander the Great, Romans, and Egyptians - to name but a few. During this time it was sacked, occupied, destroyed, and conquered a multitude of times. With the coming of the Muslims the carnage continued, with tribal wars, and invasions by the Turks, Crusaders, the Egyptians under Saladin, and the Mongols. The Ottoman Turks occupied and governed the region and city for 400 years, ending only with their defeat in World War 1 in 1918. Arabs of the region expected independence to emerge from the War, after having fought with the Allies (remember Col. T.E. Lawrence of Arabia) in routing the Turks. They were to be disappointed. The French were given the mandate to govern and entered the country in 1920. They remained there until 1946. During the whole of the French occupation, the struggle for independence went on, with continued revolutionary and counter-revolutionary activities, bloodshed and violence. Syrian independence came at a terrible price of death and destruction.

For many years, it didn't go much better after independence. The country remained in a state of continual crisis with at least 11 coup d'etats between 1946 and 1966. On top of that were the Arab-Israeli wars of 1948, 1967, and 1973, the civil war in Lebanon (just across the mountains from Damascus), the chest-pounding aggressive and authoritarian Sadam in Iraq to the south, Gulf War 1 (in which Syria was a member of the anti-Sadam coalition), Dubya's Gulf War 2 (which has resulted in as many as 2 million Iraqi refugees seeking a Syrian safe haven), and the Palistinian refugees from the creation of Israel, the occupation of the West bank and the troubles in Lebanon. The population of Syria is about 20 million, which number includes Palistinian refugees, but excludes the refugees from Iraq.

I noted that there were no tears shed for the departure of Sadam. Equally obvious was the scorn held for George W. Bush's muscular and one-sided Middle East policy, which in their minds has only served to further destabilize a region which was already in a delicate state, not to mention Syria's further alienation from the United States. Canada, because of its long-standing even handed approach to the regional issues (at least until now), earned high marks.

With its history it is small wonder then that, according to our hosts, order is uppermost in the minds of the people as well as the regime. Without order there is no peace, and without peace, there is no progress. It is for the pursuit of order, that the regime tolerates little opposition, and deals harshly with it's suspected opponents or potential opponents. Law enforcement is severe and quiet. There is virtually no crime in the city. And no terrorism. A highly sophisticated organization of internal security has so far been successful in rooting out potential disruptive elements. Armed military personnel are scattered liberally throughout the city. Given the country's record of coups and counter coups, it is little wonder that the system has evolved in this way, with order being considered of the utmost importance.

The delivery of good health care we are told, whether it be public or private, is problematic. People who have some money are likely to get serious health problems taken care of in Amman, Jordan, rather than Damascus. There are plenty of poor people.

The recent wars and instability in the region has contributed to a gigantic influx of refugees. Statistics indicate that 6 to 700,000 Palistinian refugees are in Syria with most being in the Damascus area. They have the same rights as Syrians and more than 70% are employed. Many own homes. The number of Iraqi refugees crossing the border has been as high as 30,000 to 40,000 per month with estimates of between one and two million having settled in Syria since the current war began. They have access to all government services. This new influx is creating pressures on available housing, public services, educational facilities and health care. It is a growing and immediate problem for the state. Whereas Egypt and Jordan have erected barriers to Iraqi refugees entering into their respective countries, Syria has kept an open border.

We ended our brief stay with a fantastic banquet at the Meridian Hotel. The food was excellent and abundant. The wine, first class. The conversation, stimulating. The music, haunting and exotic. And a belly-dancer that was to die for.

I can't wait to go back.

SPECIAL ED'S TORIES: INTO THE DEATH THROES

For the discerning and keen observer of the passing political parade it is high drama. For the partisan who believes his party has been kept from power for years, indeed generations, by an increasingly incompetent political monolith that cruel fate has smiled upon, it is payback time. For the Alberta Liberals and other opposition forces, it is unbelievable.

Is it political hara-kiri? Is this grotesque Vegreville Gothic scene really happening? Has this cowpoke Alberta Government slipped its own neck into the noose they had made for the rustlers - i.e. the people of the perceived rich and pampered Calgary? The answer is yes to all three questions. Special Ed and the revenge of the hayseeds from north eastern Alberta are wounded and bleeding. They don't quite realize it yet. The shock of taking power is masking the pain. But the pain is coming, and soon.

We've seen it before. Ernest Manning passing the mantle of leadership of the once formidable Social Credit Party in 1969 to nice, pleasant and borrrrrring Harry Strom, a salt-of-the-earth, God-fearing farmer from Southern Alberta. The wrong guy at the wrong time. Peter Lougheed (yes, that Peter Lougheed that the dumb and dumber Alberta neocon Tories of the Klein years vilified as being a liberal), led his party into a golden age. The farmer never had a chance. By 1971 Lougheed was Premier, and Strom was a footnote. The pundits and the Alberta Tories couldn't believe it.

We saw it also with the catastrophic succession of Kim Campbell to the Federal Tory Leadership after Muldoon in 1993. The frowning, babbling, lightweight pseudo-neocon who believed that a political campaign was no place to debate issues carried her Party to a two measly seats in the Federal Election. She was toast, and so was the venerable Federal Progressive Conservative Party toast. Neither would recover. Neither the pundits nor the Federal Grits could believe it - at least not the size of the Grit victory.

The Federal PC's were dead and for good. Those who believe that the present Federal Conservative Party is the old Federal PC Party better shake their collective heads. John Diefenbaker would be lynched by Bush's pal Steve and his pals like Stockwell Day, Jason Kenney, Vic Toews, and Jungle Jim Flaherty. Dalton Camp would be confined to Devil's Island. Joe Clark has gone into self imposed exile no doubt fearing for his physical safety.

This weekend's Provincial Tory Convention in Edmonton was a political disaster for Special Ed and his Government. First of all, they trash Joe Lougheed in his bid to become Party President. You see, young Joe, an attractive and ambitious young lawyer, has two strikes against him as far as the Stelmach boneheads are concerned. First of all, according to the present day 'Special Ed' Tories, his father was a liberal who spent beyond our means (translation: he maintained infrastructure and services, and never divided the electorate by playing one group off against another). Secondly, young Joe was from Calgary, and how many times do the Special Ed guys have to tell you that these days, Calgary is out. St. Albert must be in. Lougheed lost to a St. Albert party hack.

The Special Ed squad also chose to do nothing about massive rent increases. This is a problem throughout Alberta, but particularly so in Calgary where greedy landlords, including old Klein pals who bought the Holy Cross Hospital for a song, are sticking it to the little guy like there was no tomorrow. And with rent increases of 50% and upwards and $1000 per month or more, there is an increasing number of modest income tenants or hopeful home buyers who have decided that there is no tomorrow in Calgary. It may be in Regina, Saskatoon or Swift Current, but not in Calgary.

Special Ed spelled out his solution at the Convention. It is - get this - to sic the hirsute Ray 'King Kong' Danyluk, his Housing Minister, after the greedy landlords. Danyluk, who has the appearance of real muscle in the Tony Soprano sense of the term, has yet to offer any suggestions to resolve this crisis, even though it has been percolating for many months. Special Ed though gave us hope. He said that the solution is for King Kong Danyluk to get the Landlords in line by 'moral suasion and intimidation.' Eddie added, "He's (King Kong) a pretty big guy. Maybe people will listen to him." I kid you not!

The conventioneering Tories weren't finished with the venerable cowtown who gave the Province both the now non-person Lougheed and the clown Klein. Special Ed in his cumbersome, bland oratory, actually brought a thousand of his neanderthals to their feet - and that is no small achievement for Eddie - and a 40 second standing ovation. Why? Do you think it might have been the announcement of the construction of a hospital or some schools or the upgrading of highways? No. They cheered him for attacking Calgary's Mayor Bronconnier - known as 'Bronco', to his exponentially increasing numbers of supporters in his home town. What did Eddie do to get this awesome reaction? He belittled Bronco's argument that Special Ed's strings-attached offer of millions of bucks to the cowtown, most of which was for pet Provincial projects, would delay the westward extension of the LRT.

What Eddie and his rural army from Northeastern Alberta together with their arch-rightist pals fail to recognize, is that the Calgary problems are symptomatic of urban and rural problems in the whole Province. Calgary's problems are Edmonton's, Lethbridge's, Medicine Hat's, Grande Prairie's, Red Deer's, Fort McMurray's, Drumheller's, Hanna's, Pincher Creek's, Redwater's, Barrhead's and Peace River's. They are driven by a crying need for schools, hospitals, infrastructure, and some relief for tenants, affordable housing, and much else. All of this has been brought about by mindless neglect. Which continues and which is being recognized by Albertans in the four corners of the Province.

Kevin Taft is licking his chops. He's going to be Premier after the next election and you can say you heard it here first.

PARLIAMENT HILL: THE DAWNING OF A NEW LIBERAL ERA

Bush's pal Steve Harper is not doing well these days.

So long as Steve had a simplistic 5-point program and stuck to it, he did well. But when it came to multi-tasking he had trouble passing gas and blowing his nose at the same time. When it came to putting out fires he was all thumbs with both the hose and the extinguisher.

Harper's problems really began with his flip-flop on income trusts. During the election campaign, unlike the Grits who seemed to be lurking around the next corner to do them in, Stevie had promised to maintain them as an investment vehicle. Once in power however, he fell under the spell of the gurus at Finance, the Bank of Canada, and Bay Street. They convinced him to break the promise. And so, the sly and stealthful pal of Bush's, shamelessly changed his mind. Income Trusts, he announced, would be phased out. The handsome returns they delivered to their investors would be no more. Thusly, he broke his word to a key group of the traditional coalition of Conservative voters - retired people with savings, not to mention, the brokers and financial advisors who feed off of them, together with other business groups. They were all loyal, fair and foul weather Conservatives. Overnight, many became former loyal, fair and foul weather Conservatives.

The front end man picked by Stevie to do the verbalizing dirty work was an arrogant Ontario former ambulance chaser, Finance Minister James Flaherty. Flaherty's hauty demeanor while presiding as the chief executioner of the much beloved investment vehicle, did little but exacerbate Stevie's Government's first major PR disaster.

The next stop along Steve's road to perdition was his Budget. It took about 24 hours for the Canadian people to grasp the essence of it all - an obvious and giant bribe to the Province of Quebec.

The billions transferred over to Steve's pal Jean Charest never had a snowball's chance of passing the stink test. Charest was informed of Harper's largesse of several billion to La Belle Province to correct a mythical fiscal imbalance in Equalization payments near the end of a brutal provincial election campaign which was not going well. And so, in one of the most unsavoury and odious moves in Canadian political history, with the proceeds of his bribe, Charest offered a huge tax cut to Quebecers. He squeaked through with a narrow minority victory.

The Budget also earned the undying enmity of Tory Premier Danny Williams of Newfoundland, who came out swinging about what he saw as another broken Harper promise - the promise of not including resource revenues to calculate Equalization payments. Williams remains on the warpath, taking his rip-roaring attack on Steve's character and policies, on speechifying road trips elsewhere in Canada. Premier Calvert of Saskatchewan, notwithstanding that he is a mild gentleman as befits a man of the cloth, has also told anybody within earshot of what he thinks of the conniving Prime Minister. Canadians from across the country cursed the Prime Minister as another Quebec appeaser. Even Quebecers seemed embarassed by the Conservative generosity of other Canadians' money. His support there has dropped like a rock since.

Then comes Afghanistan. The hapless and feckless warrior, retired General and Minister of National Defence Gordon O'Connor, under constant fire in the House, changed his story about the treatment and monitoring of Canadian captured detainees in Afghanistan repeatedly. He was ably assisted in the confusion by Steve himself, together with the grey-matter challenged Liberal gift from the Conservatives that keeps on giving, Public Safety Minister Stockwell Day.

The cuckolded (probably not the most accurate term in hearkening to his treatment by the vamp Belinda, but delicious nonetheless) Foreign Affairs Minister Peter McKay also got into the act. His Department first lied about the existence of a report on conditions in Afghanistan. It then produced a heavily censored version. When an intrepid Globe and Mail reporter produced the original, Canadians discovered that the censored report left all of the good news in, and the bad news out - an odious coverup. Canadians already felt queasy about Afghanistan, there being no end in sight to our sacrifice of lives and money. Now they are left with the firm conviction that the Government does not know what it is doing there. The treatment of the detainees handed over by Canadian troops to the Afghani authorities who tortured them, sounded to them an awful lot like the evil-doers Bush, Cheney Rumsfeld, Abu Ghraib, and Guantanomo.

Next on the Agenda was the Global warming issue. This is the one promise that Bush's pal Steve Harper obviously did not want to break - the promise that he would go easier on industry than the Grits' Kyoto policy. The basis of Stevie's policy is the reduction of intensity levels of green house gas emissions, as opposed to an absolute reduction of emissions. A reduction of intensity levels will not necessarily reduce emissions. Canadians understand that in the case of the oilsands, the biggest greehouse gas belcher in the country, absolute emissions will increase regardless of intensity reductions because the production of oil from the oilsands is expected to triple in less than 10 years. The Canadian policy based on intensity reductions is - in the words of Al Gore, the guru of global warming - "a complete and total fraud."

To sell his flim-flam plan, Stevie sent into the battle, his doorman, John Baird - the chippy and burly, highly-partisan political hit man whose Frat boy demeanor reminds one of the anchorman on the college relay beer-drinking team. Yes, Baird was the designated hitter to take on the saintly Suzuki and the immensely popular Al Gore. The Frat boy never had a chance.

And finally, we have the plight of NHL star Shane Doan. Doan, from Halkirk, Alberta, is the highly effective and popular Captain of the Canadian National Team presently duking it out for the world hockey championship in Moscow. He had a dust-up with some NHL officials a couple of years ago, who accused him of making an anti-French slur during a heated hockey game. He denied it. There was an investigation, and he was cleared. But it wasn't enough to satisfy the politicians. Led by the Bloc, a hearing ensued last week before the Commons Official Languages Committee. All of the parties wanted in on this keystone kops act. By God, they were going to fall all over each other protecting our country from racial slurs in the hockey rink. Here, Steve had an opportunity of picking up some lost points. He could have and should have said, 'This is ridiculous. There's been an investigation and he's been cleared. Get off his case." He let Shane twist slowly in the wind until the debate petered out. Stevie just couldn't resist the further pandering to the nationalist vote in Quebec. He said nothing. And he lost more points. The whole Ottawa political scene became even more of a laughing stock than usual. Oh, yes, when it was all over and there were no further real or imaginary points to get, Bush's pal Steve Harper called Shane to congratulate him on a hat trick. Talk about trying to have your cake and eat it. Fortunately, the Canadian people saw it for the crass opportunism that it was.

Today Canadians received further information that the polls, already getting soft for Stevie, have taken an alarming anti-Conservative turn. An Ipsos Read poll released today shows the Conservatives with 35%, Liberals at 34%, NDP at 14%, the Bloc with 9% and Greens at 7%.

Most importantly, the Grits lead in Ontario 44% to 34%. And in Quebec, with the people obviously having more pride than Steve gives them credit for, the Grits are second to the Bloc and ahead of the Tories: The Bloc has 35%, the Grits 25% and the Conservatives 20%. In Atlantic Canada the Grits are ahead with 43% to 32% for the Conservatives. Only in the west, do the Conservatives lead the Grits: in British Columbia, 43% to 32%, in Alberta 66% to 20%, and in Saskatchewan, 46% to 25%.

If the election were held tomorrow, Stephane Dion and the Grits would win, because the overwhelming Conservative lead in Alberta does not translate into enough seats.

Bush's pal Steve Harper is in deep political trouble. What's worse, the Canadian people don't care much for him. Get ready for a Dion Government. You can say you heard it here first.

SPECIAL ED'S HEADACHES MOUNT

It was revealed this week that Special Ed's government is paying close attention to the substance and style of the government of Bush's pal Steve Harper back in Ottawa.

You will recall that recently there was an application by the Globe and Mail under the Freedom of Information legislation for the production of a Foreign Affairs report on conditions in Afghanistan. The Minister of the Department is the infamously broken-hearted Peter McKay, who was unceremoniously but understandably dumped by the comely Belinda Stronach. McKay's Department first said there was no such report - which was a lie.

A further application to the Freedom of Information Commissioner, led to the production of a report that was heavily censored with large swaths of blacked-out lines. Fortunately, the Globe and Mail had a full and complete copy of the report which it had obtained from another source. Comparing the two, it was quickly noticed that the difference between the censored report and the complete report was that all of the bad news of the report was deleted in the censored report. Concerns over corruption, poppy production, the torture of detainees, and other depressing news had all been blacked out by Foreign Affairs. There were no security issues involved that would have justified the withholding of that information from Canadians. So it must be assumed that the only reason for the reluctance of McKay's Department to come clean was to keep under wraps and from the Canadian public, information which was thought by the Harper Government to put itself in a bad light.

Today, we find that Special Ed is doing the same thing in Alberta. A censored major energy report done by Special Ed's Government, was released to the public. Again, a full and complete copy of the report has been produced through other means. A comparison of the censored report and the complete report indicates that the difference is simply 2 missing pages in the censored report.

What harmful information was contained in the missing 2 pages? That 6 U.S. States besides Texas , are receiving much higher percentages from the sale of hydrocarbons than the Province of Alberta, and that Alberta could be losing as much as 16 billion a year in hydrocarbon revenues - that's what!

Special Ed and his 'back to the soil' government wanted to keep that information from Albertans. Why would he have done that? For pals in the oil industry who may have wanted to pony up $5000 for his intimacy sessions? To be relieved of having to deal with the Royalty issue in the near-term? And why doesn't he want to deal with that issue now? Why is it that he was afraid of that information getting into the hands of ordinary Albertans?

So, Eddie has been caught red-handed trying to keep Albertans in the dark.

But there is more trouble ahead. Special Ed is also in a continuing heated squabble with Mayor Bronconnier of Calgary, who is telling anybody who will listen that Special Ed's Budget did not carry out his 'no strings attached' promise of billions of dollars in cash to Calgary. Bronco says major projects that are urgently needed will have to be delayed as a result. He is not happy.
There is the continuing health care crisis, delayed school construction, and the lack of major infrastructure additions or improvements.

And his caucus is about to give him real trouble. Sources say that there is plenty of disgruntlement and divided opinion over issues such as nucleur power for the oilsands, fixed annual contributions to the Heritage Fund, and rent controls. And of course, there are the looming two by-elections, as well as polls that show his support is weakening, particularly in Calgary.

Not looking good for Special Ed, that's for sure!

RALPH: TIME TO LAY LOW

Times have changed for who we used to know as good old Ralph. It's not like it used to be, that's for sure.

There was a day when a fawning press, sycophantic and reward seeking hustlers, manipulative neocons, loud-mouth right-wing talk show hosts, drinking buddies and other assorted hangers-on and lowlifes, used to chortle at his every word, excuse every gaff and move to cover up every mess left in his wake.

If in a besotted rage he got into a shouting match with a resident of a homeless shelter at Christmas time, well, all he had to do was say he was going on the wagon. Voila! The story was torqued by his pals so that the big news was that he was giving up the bottle. If he blew up one perfectly good hospital and closed another in his home town, his toadies sold the public on the fact that he did it for a good cause - to get rid of the deficit and pay down the debt. If he left a Premier's conference on Health Care while it was still in session, to go to play the slots at a casino, well then, the groupies would say that he was just a regular guy and that's what regular guys did. Criticism would be muted and indeed, unreported. The public bought it all.

But, as the Klein Tories used to love to say, 'That was then and this is now.' Actually, the 'now' for Ralph began about the time of the last Provincial Election in the fall of 2004. The major city newspapers turned on him. So too did his Party. And soon he was history.

Or, what should have been history. Like the heavyweight champion who loses the title after a terrible beating, and who refuses to believe that he is finished and insists on more fights, so it is with Ralph Klein. Since his removal as Party Leader, he continues to consciously seek the spotlight. No sooner than he hired on as a lobbyist with a national law firm days after he left office with his $600,000 settlement, it was on every front page newspaper in the country. The public verdict was that it appeared to be a greedy and hasty act. Not the kind of thing a good old boy would do.

Now, he's getting it again. While accepting a 'Friend of the Industry Award' at the Alberta Film and Television Awards in Edmonton on the weekend, he talked about a documentary about aboriginals that was filmed near Rocky Mountain House. He said his Executive Assistant had told him, that ". . . the Indians have been drinking there for years and years. Why can't they shoot a film there?" After a tepid crowd response, Klein went on, "We made it possible for them to shoot the film."

The response to Klein's words has been ugly and, unlike the old days, has been widely reported. Muriel Stanley Venne, President of the Institute for the Advancement of Aboriginal Women, was 'appalled.' Len Untereiner, President and Founder of the Spirit Keeper Youth Society, which tries to keep Aboriginal youths out of gangs, said "He'll [Ralph] kick anybody who's down. He's a bully. The best thing to do is to ignore him." Ralph, who can't seem to pass an open mike without saying a few words, was interviewed on radio about the incident. He claimed that his words were taken out of context.

Ralph should go underground for a while. He should take a page out of Brian Mulroney's book, who disappeared largely from public view for some time after his departure from politics. Like Ralph, Mulroney needed to be laundered and unlike Ralph, he knew it. He also knew that his continued presence on the public stage was going to be a hindrance to his Party, just as Ralph is a hindrance to his party, as well as to the fledgling Stelmach Government.

As one who has known Ralph Klein and liked him (although I never voted for him as a Tory), I always felt that he was led down the wrong track as Premier by the backslappers, hustlers and neocon ideologues in business and the Alberta print media. The result has been a mess waiting for another Government to clean up. A growing number of Albertans feel this way. For the ex-Premier, its time to lay low.

HARPER AND O'CONNOR: CANADA'S BUSH AND RUMSFELD ( OR CHENEY - TAKE YOUR PICK)

Those naive Canadians who believe that the Harper Government and the Bush Government operate differently, better start paying attention to what is going on.

What is happening in Afghanistan with respect to our military operations as they deal with suspected Taliban detainees is outrageous and perhaps worse.

By way of review, as has been been widely reported this week by the Globe and Mail, our Canadian troops from time to time have detained people suspected of being or helping Taliban fighters. After the detainees are taken into custody by Canada, they are turned over to the Afghanistan authorities. Some of those are handed over to the Afghanistan National Directorate of Security, which is the Intelligence Police. The Canadian military have signed an agreement with the Afghanistan Human Rights Commission wherein the Commission agrees to monitor and report back to the Canadian authorities about any allegations or evidence of torture or other mistreatment while the detainees are in the custody of the Intelligence Police.

Defence Minister O'Connor has stated to the House that he knows of no allegations of torture, and that he has relied on the Human Rights Commission to keep the Canadian military informed pursuant to the Agreement.

The Geneva Convention requires a country that has taken prisoners that are transferred to another authority, must ensure that those prisoners are not abused by that other authority.

The Globe and Mail's in depth look at the situation published this week, indicates that there were 30 suspected Taliban detainees who, once they were under the control of the Intelligence Police, were tortured and mistreated in a host of inhumane ways. Furthermore, the report states that the Human Rights Commission said that it does not have enough staff to monitor what is happening to the detainees. Worse yet, the Intelligence Police refuses to cooperate and allow the Human Rights Commission to investigate.

Many people are aware of this deplorable situation. Defence Minister O'Connor and Prime Minister Harper have both stated to the Commons, that they are not aware of such goings on. The Prime Minister in the House yesterday, said that the allegations of torture were allegations of the Taliban. That is not what the Globe and Mail reported. All of the 30 suspects were ultimately released with no charges filed. Upon their release they told of suffering from torture while in the custody of the Intelligence Police. The Prime Minister said yesterday, ". . . We do not have evidence that [the torture] is true. And certainly I have to say that to suggest the Canadian Forces would deliberately violate the Geneva Convention, and to make that suggestion solely based on the allegations of the Taliban, I think, is the height of irresponsibility."

O''Connor continued his dissembling, Pinnochio-like, wrong-again, performance in the House by saying that the Human Rights Commission, ". . . have confirmed that they can do what we have asked them." In fact, the Globe and Mail discovered that the Human Rights Commission is barred from inspecting detainees held in cells run by the Intelligence Police and are understaffed to properly do their work.

Are Harper and O'Connor stupid, wilfully blind, or stupid liars?

A clue lies in a related story about a written report prepared by Canadian diplomats respecting conditions in Afghanistan. The Report was thought to include information on Human Rights. When inquiries by the Globe and Mail were made about the existence of such a report, the Foreign Affairs Department lied. They said it did not exist.

After complaints were made to the Access to Information Commissioner, Foreign Affairs released the Report. It appeared to have been prepared in 2006 and was entitled "Good Governance, Democratic Development and Human Rights." The produced report had large swaths of it blacked out.

Fortunately, the Globe and Mail got its hands on the full unedited and uncensored report. The two reports were compared - the censored report and the complete report. Among the passages blacked out were the words: "Extrajudicial executions, disappearances, torture, and detention without trial are all too common." Another blacked out passage stated "the overall human rights situation in Afghanistan deteriorated in 2006." Another blacked out passage stated: "military, intelligence and police forces have been accused of involvement in arbitrary arrest, kidnapping, extortion, torture and extrajudicial killing." There were more statements which showed that torture and corruption of the Security forces that had been edited out of the censored report. In fact, the edited, blacked-out version of the report contained only positive news. The full report contained negative passages together with the positive.

The Foreign Affairs Department appeared to have told a whopper when it said originally there was no report. Then it produced a report containing only the good news and censoring the bad -a deliberate attempt to mislead the public.

The actions of our Government in this sordid affair are uncannily akin to the Bush administration practice of tailoring intelligence to support its mindless policies in Iraq, and deliberately misleading his public about torture and mistreatment of prisoners by United States forces in places like Abu Graibh and Guantanamo.

In fact, the Canadian Government at the moment is run by many extremist, neocon, Bush admirers and lackeys. The Prime Minister and Minister of Defence are two of them. They are prepared to mislead, lie, and look the other way about torture and mistreatment of detainees, so that the public swallow their Afghanistan policy. Canadians, when they are finally asked their opinions about this Government at the ballot box, will have it all figured out by then. And this Government will be defeated.

GORDON O'CONNOR: LIKE THE PIANO PLAYER IN THE BORDELLO

In case Canadians think that we don't have our very own Dick Cheneys and Donald Rumsfelds, they should read today's Globe and Mail. In a front page expose we learned that when suspected Taliban Afghans are captured by our troops, after being handcuffed and treated politely, they are turned over to Afghan security forces. The Globe dug up 30 former detainees in Afghanistan who said that they received good treatment from the Canadians.

However, once the Canadians had sent them to the Afghan security forces it was a different story. To put it mildly. The Afghans were a little harder on the detainees. For example, they were choked. They were hung by their ankles. They were whipped with electrical cables. They were starved, stripped naked and made to spend the night in brisk Afghan temperatures. And this treatment went on for days on end. When their tormentors decided that the detainees were no threat, they were then released.

When the Opposition got on O'Connor's case in the Commons today about him turning a blind eye to torture, he and the Prime Minister said our Canadian troops treated all detainees well. Which was true as far as it goes. As to the treatment of the detainees by the Afghan security forces, well, they would look into it. With a straight face, O'Connor said in his defence that the Afghanistan Human Rights Commission had promised to advise Canada if any of the detainees were abused.

That ranks up there as a mother of all disingenuous responses. O'Connor has been connected to the military all of his life. He rose to the rank of General in the Canadian Armed Force. After he retired he lobbied for some Defence contracting firms for a time before he went into politics. Since he's been in politics he has been Defence Minister. He is telling us and would have us believe that he is naive about these things. He pleads ignorance of interrogation methods and treatment of detainees by third world countries like Afghanistan, a country steeped in revolutionary foment for as long as anyone can remember. This is beyond belief - just like the piano player in the bordello who claims he doesn't know what's going on upstairs. This is monumental stupidity or wilful blindness. Take your pick.

O'Connor's actions before and after the evidence was presented by the Globe and Mail are no different from Cheney, Rumsfeld and Bush who denied knowledge of mistreatment and torture in Baghdad's Abu Ghraib prison or Guantanamo Bay. It is the same mentality of officialdom that would send Maher Arar to Syria from Canada and the United States, so that the dirty work would be done by another country that had ways of making people talk. So they wouldn't have to worry about inconveniences like the Charter of Rights or civil liberties lawyers.

This is a continuation of O'Connor's blindness or stupidity on these issues. In the Commons in early March, he was questioned about allegations of detainee abuse by Canadian troops. He responded that Canada got reports and updates from the International Committee of the Red Cross on such issues. Two weeks later he apologized for his misstatement. He had discovered that The Red Cross has no such obligation.

O'Connor is a cowboy in matters of Defence. As is General Hillier, the Chief of the Defence Staff who broke through to the public consciousness in July with his famous 'murders and scumbags' speech. Part of what he said on that day about the Taliban was this: "These are detestable murderers and scumbags. I'll tell you that right up front. They detest our freedoms, they detest our society, they detest our liberties,.." Now if that isn't a page out of George W. Bush's 'Political Speeches for Dummies' book I don't know what is.

Hillier signed an agreement in December of 2005 wherein Canadian Armed Forces would transfer suspected Taliban detainees to the Afghan security forces. However, the agreement contained no clause that the Canadian military had a right to inspect the detainees after transfer. Unlike other European nations who are in Afghanistan as part of the NATO forces -those nations have such a clause in their agreements.

O'Connor and Hillier are reckless. They are Canada's Cheney and Rumsfeld.

As suggested today by a couple of Professors, if it is proven that Canadians turned over the captive detainees knowing they would be tortured, the two cowboys may be in for a helluva lot of trouble for themselves, not to mention the disgrace upon our country that will follow.

FROM FAST EDDIE TO SPECIAL ED IN LESS THAN FIVE MONTHS

The performance of Premier Stelmach thusfar has rendered his sobriquet 'Fast Eddie' as pure nonsense. The Premier is anything but fast. But he is special. Special to the opposition parties in the Province and particularly to the opposition and government-in-waiting Liberals of Kevin Taft. And so, for the forseeable future unless anyone has any objection, I will refer to the Preem as Special Ed.

Special Ed did not have a good week. It was the week of the unveiling of his first Budget - to devastating reviews. His Government intends to spend a monstrous 33.1 billion big ones with total spending increasing by 7%. Unfortunately, most of the money is going to the operations of secondary schools and hospitals, together with infrastructure maintenace. Aside from a few meaningless tax cuts, there was little left over for anything else. As usual, there is not even a whiff of a long-term, short-term, or any kind of plan.

18 billion or so is for capital spending over the next 3 years - about a 5 billion increase from last year. More than 25% of that 5 billion - 1.3 billion - covers cost escalations of on-going capital projects as a result of the hot economy. Another billion of that 5 billion is being kept in the bank in case costs increase even more than anticipated. In fact, there is little difference between this additional capital cost caused by rising costs of projects, and paying interest on a Government debt. Either way, the Government is spending money for no material return. Because of current projects and their cost escalations, there is little room for new projects - like schools and hospitals, not to mention affordable housing.

This sad state of affairs is a direct fallout of the disasterous johnny-one-note policy of the Klein Government of which Special Ed was very much of a Big Stick. Its only policy was to kiss the backsides of their fat cat neocon friends and wannabes in or on the fringe of certain elements of big business. It was they together with Klein's brains trust who counselled that the quick and full payment of the Provincial debt should be its only priority - over a period of 13 years. And we're all paying for it now - including Special Ed, Ralph's former Big Stick.

Calgary specifically gets in in the ear. Again. There is 96 million dollars allocated to major school maintenance. 15 million or 16% of that sum is allocated to Calgary, a city that contains roughly 33% of the Province's population. The deferred maintenance backlog on Calgary schools is almost 500 million. So, that generous sum represents about 3% of the city's needs.

Particularly ominous for Special Ed were the rants of gutsy and popular Mayor Bronco. According to Bronco, the Budget was 'hocus-pocus, booga-booga economics.' Thats a pretty strong indictment coming from a guy who until the Budget was brought down was making nice to the Premier. Bronco expected that the municipalities would get an annual amount equal to the education portion of the property tax with no strings attached - 400 billion this year to about 1.4 billion by 2010-11. Ah, but Special Ed's Government attached strings - the money is ear-marked to a series of specific projects. It was not the deal Bronco thought he'd bargained for, and so Bronco is letting him know. Special Ed becomes Slippery Ed.

The Public and Catholic School Boards, the Alberta Urban Municipalities Association, the Mayor, Members of Calgary City Council, SAIT administration, U of C students, the Mustard Seed Ministry, the Alberta Chamber of Commerce, the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, the Certified General Accountants of Alberta, are but a few of the voices of the underwhelmed heard in the wake of Special Ed's first Budget.

Yes, Special Ed has had a tough five months. Given the demands on his Government, and the fact that he has to play catch-up because of the past mindless pursuit of the debt to the exclusion of all else, things are not likely to get any better.

STEPHEN HARPER AND THE GREAT UNRAVELING

It all looked so easy at first - the new Liberal leader Stephane Dion struggling to get his message across in English, a youthful (if portly) Prime Minister that seemed to stick to his promises and deliver well crafted speeches, a Government party unburdened by scandal, party coffers bursting at the seams, the Premier of Quebec making nice, an economy going gangbusters - shurely, it was only a matter of time and the Conservatives would form a majority Government.

The chattering class by a wide margin interpreted the Quebec election results as boding well for Steve. The public seemed to show strong initial support for the budget - initial polls showed the Conservatives' support spiked to 40%. It all looked so rosy for Bush's pal Steve Harper. It was going to be a waltz. A breeze. A romp. He had the bucks, the brand new hi-tech 17500 square foot, shiny headquarters. And the polls that showed him to be a 2 to 1 favorite as the leader who would make the best Prime Minister.

Well, if I may be permitted to indulge in some trite and hackneyed political truisms, that was then and this is now. Or, dare I say, if two weeks is a long time in politics, one month may seem like an eternity.

Since the Budget was tabled on April 19, its been all downhill for Stevie. It took a few days to settle in, but once Canadians had time to think about the great Quebec giveaway - the billions given to rectify a mythical fiscal imbalance - they were . . . well, they were underwhelmed. Particularly when they thought about Premier Charest - toute de suite, as they would say in La Belle Province -bribing Quebecers with a 700 million tax break upon hearing of of Harper's beneficence on the eve of the Quebec election. Premier Danny Williams, the colourful and fearless newfy and the normally sober and sedate man-of-the-cloth Premier Calvert of Saskatchewan, began leading an attack on the Budget that continues unabated.

Even Bay Streeters, who one would think regarded Stevie as their fair-haired boy, became angry. They were irate over the Budgetary tax change that disallowed Canadian companies deducting loan interest for foreign investments.

The El Stinko Budget seemed to revive that damnable Income Trust issue still festering in the minds of millions of middle class Canadians and income trust business leaders. Harper's shameless broken election promise saw net worths of ordinary Canadians slashed. Cash flows that older families had relied on for their twilight years, thanks to Harper, were now out the window. Furthermore, piranha-like foreign companies were now picking up business assets of the trusts for a song. Ontario MP and Grit finance critic John McCallum was greeted by cheers - in Calgary of all places - as he assailed Harper and his Government for being idiots and morons for trashing income trusts.

But that's not all. Soon to replace Stockwell Day as the gift to the Liberals that keeps on giving, Defence Minister Gordon O'Connor has been front and center in the Conservative drive to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory. Former General O'Connor was already in trouble. He had to do an embarassing about face by admitting in the Commons that the Red Cross did not inform Canadian authorities if Taliban prisoners turned over by Canadians to Afghani authorities were mistreated. He had earlier informed the House otherwise. O'Connor was also
under heavy criticism regarding Federal untendered purchasing contracts made between his Department and a company for which he had formerly lobbied.

In recent days O'Connor blithely commented that the Afghanistan war would probably last 15 years. Underlining that statement and in a move indicating Canada would be in the Kandahar debacle far beyond the Commons approved 2009 date, his Department acquired tanks from Holland which will only be delivered in 2009. This comes at a time when plenty of Canadians have become concerned with body bags of our brave young troops, and informed that the good news of our heavy lifting participation in the NATO initiative in Afghanistan is not shared by knowledgeable observers on the ground. The feel-good rhetoric from O'Connor, Day, Toews, and Hillier about success in Afghanistan seems to be shared only among themselves.

And there remains the disquiet felt by many Canadians about the meanness of the Prime Minister, reflected by his partisan and personal attacks which can only be described as extreme - accusations that Liberals support the Taliban instead of our troops, that a Liberal Sikh MP did not support the continuation of measures under the anti-terror legislation so as to keep his father in law from testifying at the Air India Inquiry, and that Liberals are not a friend of Israel, etc. etc.

There's more. Now we have the attack on Kyoto. Harper's Environment Minister Pit bull, John Baird's over the top doomsday scenario unveiled this week in the Senate hearings has met with derision from all quarters - even including traditional Conservative cheerleader Canwest columnist Don Martin. Senator Denis Dawson referring to Al Gore's 'An Inconvenient Truth,' called Baird's show 'a convenient lie.'

And if all of that wasn't bad enough, now Stephane Dion has begun to find his voice. His environment policy is widely seen by experts to be the most responsible. He and John McCallum have offered up a credible alternative to the Conservative axing of Income Trusts, so as to protect the investments of ordinary Canadians. He has boldly agreed with Elizabeth May not to run a Liberal candidate in the Central Nova Riding that she hopes to win from Peter McKay, and she has agreed to reciprocate in his Montreal Riding. This clears the way for unprecedented cooperation between the Liberals and the Greens (and probably some Green NDP) in the next Federal Election.

The result: a poll released by Decima Research on April 17 shows the Tories at 34% - 2 points below election day in January 2006. The Grits have 31%, the NDP have 15%, the Greens have 11% and the Bloc 7%. And in Quebec, the Budget honeymoon has really gone south: the Bloc has 29% and the Grits lead the Conservatives 23% to 20%. Apparently Quebecers do not liked being bribed. The ND's trail with 10%.

The future is bleak for Bush's pal Steve Harper. With numbers like that he will not win a majority. With a trend like that he is likely to lose if the election is called soon. With gaffes like he and his Government have committed in recent weeks, the result could be a Liberal majority Government. Which of course, I have predicted. Once again, you can say you heard it here first.

FEDERAL CONSERVATIVE POLICIES: 'IDIOTIC,' 'STUPIDITY,' CONCOCTED BY 'MORONS,' 'A BETRAYAL': WHO SAYS? CALGARY SAYS!

For Calgary Grits it was a sight to behold - 300 or so Calgarians, old and young, men and women, oil patchers, business people, all crowded into the foyer of the Jack Singer Theatre in downtown Calgary to cheer on a Ontario Grit MP.

On Thursday at noon hour, John McCallum Ontario Liberal MP and Opposition Finance critic, with gusto, tore into the Conservative plan to tax income trusts and offered up a plan of his own. McCallum, clearly pleased with and invigorated by his reception and knowing he was among friends, referred to the Conservatives' income trust policy as not only a broken promise, but also a policy of 'stupidity' that was 'idiotic' and concocted by a bunch of 'morons.' He said that the Tory policy made the energy trust sector 'sitting ducks' to acquisitive foreign companies. He promised that a Liberal government would make the trust issue a priority and would set a 10% tax on the sector which would be refundable to Canadians - in contrast to the Conservatives' 31% corporate tax rate. To all of which the crowd cheered mightily.

Questioners who were longtime Conservatives repeatedly accused the Harper Government of betrayal and arrogance, with several stating that they had cast their last Conservative ballot. Both McCallum and the Liberals in attendance were all smiles at the end of the session knowing that he'd struck a solid chord with a growing number of disenchanted former life long Tories.

By contrast, on Saturday Calgary Conservative MP and Secretary of State for Multiculturalism Jason Kenney took a pasting from many of his 350 or so of his constituents at an open house meeting at Sam Livingstone School. There, former loyal and faithful Conservatives accused Kenney and the Conservatives of betrayal and playing games, and called him a liar during discussions about the income trust issue, equalization, the war in Afghanistan, immigration and the environment. The most wilting attack came in discussions about the income trust issue. Kenney said later that he found the experience 'humbling.'

What does all this mean? It means that a helluva lot of people in the area - and elsewhere - lost 20 billion or so of savings with the Bush's pal Harper's flip-flop on the income trusts. Most of those hurt in Alberta were dyed in the wool Conservatives and many of those were relying on income trusts to take them through their twilight retirement years. Many westerners were also appalled at Harper's billions of dollars kow-towing to Quebec to correct a mythical fiscal imbalance. They feel they were stabbed in the back and now realize that their loyalty was taken for granted.

All of which will help the Liberals in Alberta in the next Federal election. More so than even imagined in Bush's pal Steve Harper's worst nightmares.

STEPHANE DION: A DEFT MOVE FOR THE GREEN VOTE

If anybody knows anything about the Green Party, they know that it is a Party whose members and supporters are not short of brains. In addition, they are idealists. They support the Green Party for a high moral purpose: to prevent the pirates and brigands of this world from destroying the planet Earth.

Having brains and principle, Green Party membership and supporters know how to vote strategically. In any election, if they become satisfied that another party's candidate shares their values, they will vote strategically and support that other candidate from that other party.

An example of this occured in Calgary in the last provincial election in the Riding of Mountain View. The Green support in the riding was strong. David Swann, the Liberal candidate, was a known fighter for the environment. As a matter of fact, he had been fired by the Medicine Hat Health Region on orders from a Tory Provincial Minister, because he had publicly supported the Kyoto Accord. A lot of Medicine Hat residents were appalled at this ham-handed move, and so applied pressure on the Health Region to reinstate Swann. The Region, feeling the heat, offered Swann his job back. He refused. He then ran in the next election in the riding of Calgary Mountain View as a Liberal. The Green Party knew he was on their side. He received the Green vote (and a good many NDP votes as well) and won the riding handily. The Greens had voted strategically for a person from another party that they knew represented their goals and values.


Stephane Dion has agreed not to run a Liberal in the next Federal Election in Central Nova so as to allow Elizabeth May, the Green Party Leader, a better chance to defeat Peter McKay, the current Tory MP and Minister of Foreign Affairs. Equally, Ms. May has agreed that the Greens will not run a candidate in Dion's riding of Saint Laurent in Montreal. This was a deft strategic move by Dion. It gives him extra cachet with the Greens (and very likely the NDP as well) right across the country. It was a move designed to show clearly that he supported their great cause. May, for her part, made clear her respect for Dion and that she believes that he is sincere on the environment. Convinced that Dion is serious about the environment, she helps the Green cause by helping the Liberals. And so, the Green Party leader has enhanced the credibility of Stephane Dion both amongst her following and amongst those of the NDP who are ardent Greenies on the issue that most matters to them.

This highly political and influential move is designed to get Greens and some NDP to vote strategically to elect Liberal candidates in the next Federal election. The message from this May-Dion pact that goes out to all Green and NDP voters across the country is simple one. The Liberals are friends of the Greens, and so a strategic vote for the Liberals is a vote for a better and cleaner environment.

This spells bad news for the Bush's pal Steve Harper and Jack Layton. There are twenty to thirty percent of the Canadian electorate that could park their vote with the Greens and the NDP in the next Federal Election. By this move Dion is sure to siphon some of that towards the Liberals.

Let's see, the SES poll done a week or so ago had the Conservatives at 36% and the Liberals at 33%. If 10% of the Green/NDP support goes to the Grits from strategic Green and NDP voters - why, that puts Dion and his Grits in majority country. Remember to say you heard it hear first: it will be 'Prime Minister Stephane Dion' after the next Federal Election.