SPECIAL ED'S BEGINNING OF THE END

The Tories lost Calgary Elbow Tuesday night and probably for a very long time. They had held it since its inception in 1971. Not only that, over the years they tweaked it, twisted it, revised it, replotted it, and carved it, so that a solid Tory vote would always be assured for their MLA, Ralph Klein. Klein was first elected as a Tory in Calgary Elbow in 1989 and became Premier in 1993. The gerrymandering of the Riding was a work of art, really. A text-book example of political manipulation.

Despite all of this conniving, Special Ed in only six incredibly inept months of power has left the masterpiece in tatters. Elbow now belongs to Craig Cheffins, and the Alberta Liberal Party. For those who count, Cheffins' victory puts 4 seats in the Grit column in Calgary. The last time Calgary had 4 Liberal seats was in . . . . . wow! They've never had 4 seats in Calgary. Ever.

There were several reasons why Cheffins scored his victory. First of all, Cheffins was a first class candidate. He has a strong likeability factor. He was able to easily frame and discuss the issues and stayed 'on message.' The message - 'Send the Government a message.' Cheffins, his wife and many friends were tireless door campaigners. He also had a strong history of community service. Furthermore, Grits from the four corners of the city together with the three Calgary Grit MLA's elected in the general Election of 1984 and their organizations, worked the doors night after night identifying the Liberal vote. Cheffins' Election Day organization took care of the rest.

But that is only part of the story. Leader of the Alberta Liberal Party Kevin Taft has a been a workhorse since his election as Leader in the spring of 2004. By reason of the strength of his considerable intellect, his methodical step-by step building of the Party, and the consistent and effective legislative performance of he and his fellow MLA's, he must also share the kudos for the victory.

And then of course, we must not discount the effect on the election of Special Ed and his government of small-minded and vengeful rural-based Tories.

Stelmach's government has done virtually nothing since its election. There are many Tories who support this non-action. There are many neanderthals in the Tory government and caucus who still cling to the minimalist theories of the neocon movement that emerged during the Klein years. That view holds that the people of Alberta are dyed in the wool conservatives who don't want government to spend their money or interfere with their lives for good or bad under almost any circumstances.

This view was reflected by the Tories throughout their campaign right up to the last day. Ron Liepert, Minister of Education, announced that because of the soaring loonie, provincial revenues would be down and therefore people shouldn't expect much in the way of new schools. Not to be outscrimped, Minister of Advanced Education Doug Horner, said that the same held true with respect to the earlier Klein commitment of adding more spaces for students at the University of Calgary. The government , said Horner, needed more time to look at the costs of this commitment so, - again - don't expect much in the forseeable future. Wide spread support for this minimalist view amongst Calgarians may have been 5 years ago, or even 3 years ago, but not today. Too many families have been adversely impacted by a lack of what they need.

Thus, the good burghers of Elbow were looking to the government to do something - about schools, universities, hospitals, and housing. The popular Mayor Bronconnier had taken the pulse of the city and knew that was the mood. He left no opportunity go by to publicly lambaste the government for breaking a commitment to provide no-strings-attached funding for necessary capital and infrastructure projects. After all, Bronco is running for re-election in the fall. His withering attacks took their toll, as did the mindless counterattacks led by the likes of David Rodney, Tory caucus Chair and Sustainable Development and Environment Minister Ted Morton.

Stelmach's announcement that his government was going to build and pay for a new hospital in the south part of the city was widely regarded as cynical. It had been promised by the Tories for about a decade with absolutely no concrete headway having been made since that time, while the costs of the project soared. He got no points for that.

And then there was the pathetically weak public persona of Special Ed himself. He continues to be a dreary, sometimes tongue-tied communicator. He has the demeanor of a man without intensity or passion, who cannot control his bickering caucus, and who continues to stumble along without a plan.

The result: Grits took almost half of the vote - 48.8%, up by more than 12 % from their performance in 2004. The Tories took 38.14% of the vote, down by about 13.5 % since 2004. Oh yes, in 2004 more than 3000 more people voted than in this by-election. Thus, enough Tories moved to the Grits, and enough Tories, those who perhaps couldn't stomach the Grits, stayed home. The result was a Grit victory.

The Stelmach government is reeling. It seems that it is blindly staggering about, hoping vainly for a return of the old days, when Albertans voted Tory regardless of how inept and incompetent they were. Those days are gone. If there is no improvement in the government's performance - and given the talent in the caucus and the upper echelons of the public service, there is not likely to be any improvement - well, get ready to greet Premier Kevin Taft after the next general election. And you can say you heard it here first.

SPECIAL ED: BEING BATTERED IN A BY- ELECTION

As the by-election in Calgary Elbow reaches its climax, Special Ed is pulling out all the stops Tory-wise. Alas, there are not too many to pull.

One was the soon-to-be-forgotten Jim Dinning. The Tories surprisingly recruited Dinning for a little campaigning in Calgary Elbow. It was 'a little campaigning' alright. A feeble, nanno-second, photo-op door knock in the riding. That was about the only good news for the Tories in Calgary Elbow in recent days.

Apparently the still battered and bleeding Dinning, who fell during Special Ed's Hayseed Revolution last December in his bid to replace Klein, still feels some loyalty to the party that gave him the boot, notwithstanding his years of loyal and faithful service to the cause. Then again, maybe it was Dinning's last hurrah and he wanted to go out with some class - an attribute largely missing among Special Ed's forces.

The Premier had the usual Tory gall to use government operating cash for a late election propaganda pamphlet. To the tune of about $200,000 of taxpayer money, the government published a mail-out to show 1.3 million Alberta households just how much loot is being spent by Special Ed's team on Calgary and Alberta generally. Tom Olsen, now one of Eddie's in-house press flacks after years of working for the Klein government by writing his Calgary Herald Legislature column, told the public that the pamphlet was really no big deal. These "non-partisan" communications went out 3 times a year to show how government is working for Albertans, said Olsen. As his nose became more extended, Special Ed's Pinnochio said blithely, "Its got nothing to do with by-elections."

The Premier continued his campaigning by resorting to another traditional Tory election goodie - hospitals. He announced - for the fourth time - that the Tory government would pay for the new hospital in the south part of the city.
The construction of this hospital has a depressing, boring and irksome history. Back in 1998 when Ralph was in the midst of his deficit and debt reduction mayhem, blowing-up and closing down hospitals, he said that the hospital should be built 'fairly quickly.' In 2004 he presided over a ground breaking ceremony. In 2005, Ralph's government promised to pay the 500 million or so cost of it. Just 3 months ago in March, Special Ed promised to pay the full shot of 900 million. And now, Ed says once again that his government will pay the full cost - which now stands at $1.25 billion. He also says that it will be complete by 2011, 13 years after Ralph said it should be built 'fairly quickly.' And he is using this commitment on the by-election hustings in Calgary Elbow to attract votes. Strange, you say? Yes, indeed, strange! And stranger still, if the good burghers of Calgary Elbow fall for it.

In the meantime, uber-mountaineer and now Tory caucus chair, David Rodney continues to pummel away at Mayor Bronco. The two-time Everest conqueror told outstanding Calgary Sun columnist Bill Kaufmann during an interview that when people meet Special Ed, "they're instantly won over." About Bronco he opined that the Mayor was causing Tory approval ratings to go down because he wasn't grateful enough or obedient to the Tories. He also said that the Mayor's behaviour was such that he, Rodney, was having a hard time having a professional relationship with him - i.e. Bronco is unprofessional. One wonders if Rodney's personal attacks on a popular Mayor during a crucial by-election might be a manifestation of some high altitude vascular accident in his brain.

The week ended with Ed's neocon Sustainable Resource Development Minister, Ted Morton and Education Minister Ron Leipert making matters much worse. Morton revved up the battle with Bronco with a speech in Banff to some municipal leaders. Morton had the temerity to say that "Calgary by itself is a good, but not a great city." The Mayor, once again livid with righteous indignation, replied that Morton ". . . stood up there and ripped our city. . . . Calgary is a great city and I am offended." Of course, Morton could not leave the matter rest. He responded, "This shows the source of a lot of these polemics is a mayor who is far too thin-skinned." Naturally, the melee led to lurid headlines. The Herald Saturday edition of June 9 headline was: Mayor takes Tories to task." Not helpful at all.

Nor was it helpful to Special Ed and the Tories when Education Minister Ron Leipert announced that because of rising costs, and the rising value of the loonie, the province was feeling a financial strain. Thus, the people of Calgary should not expect too much in the way of new school construction. Lack of schools in new subdivisions has been a critical problem for some time now. With no end in sight, parents of small children who are bussed long distances every day are, and will be in the forseeable future, bloody angry.

In the end there was another piece of what could be interpreted as good news for the Premier. His predecessor, mentor, and patron Ralph Klein had a slough named after him. Oh, they call it a Park. Ralph Klein Park. But it is 30 hectares located in the 225 hectare Shepard Wetlands, located in south-east Calgary near the City limits. And so, its a slough.

And if that is the best thing that can happen to the Tories on the cusp of the Elbow by-election, well, I think Special Ed is going to lose this one. On Tuesday, look to Liberal Craig Cheffins taking Ralph's old riding away from the Tories.

KEVIN TAFT: ON THE MOVE

For Special Ed, these are tough times. Brutal, in fact. For the past couple of weeks, with a single exception, its been all bad news. Indeed, he picked up plenty of speed going down the steep incline towards the Harry Strom world of political oblivion.

Calgary's Mayor Bronco continued his deft attack against Special Ed's double cross on what should have been no-strings infrastructure money to Calgary.
Surprisingly, Eddie's Calgary Tory Caucus Chair David Rodney, MLA for Calgary Lougheed was caught stumbling in the wake of the Bronco onslaught. Rodney blamed obvious Tory difficulties in Calgary to Bronco's attacks on municipal funding. He also accused the Mayor of misleading Calgarians on the issue in an effort to get the Government to knuckle under to his demands. Rodney added loftily that, "He [Bronco] needs to remember he's the mayor of Calgary, he's not his (sic) majesty's loyal opposition." Pouring more gasoline on the fire, Rodney said the Mayor was betraying Calgarians by sabotaging the efforts of Calgary Tory MLA's. Bronco, for his part, rose in righteous indignation to demand Rodney cease the 'personal attacks,' and work to solve the problem. Rodney's whining was surprising for a formerly sure-footed, two-time conqueror of Mount Everest cum gung-ho motivational speaker. Happily for him he stumbled at the low altitudes of the Alberta prairies rather than at 28000 feet.

Finance Minister Lyle Oberg continued his reckless musings by implying that that the Task Force looking into the adequacy of oil and gas royalties going into Government coffers would likely decide that they were fine. According to Oberg, because of high cost inflation in exploration and development, the oil companies just would probably not be able to pay any more. Hence, the obvious question - why bother continuing with the Task Force? Ministers had to clean up the motormouth's mess so that the Task Force could continue to stumble to what the oil barons are sure to see as a positive and just outcome.

In the meantime, formerly friendly editorial boards of the major print media are becoming increasingly bellicose and threatening of the Special Ed squad. Columnist Rick Bell of the Calgary Sun has been on the Government's case for a long time. But he is now being joined by the likes of the Edmonton Sun's Neil Waugh.

And to add to Eddie's woes, Cameron Strategies, a market research firm headed by political strategist Bruce Cameron who honed his skills with the Angus Reid firm for many years, released some polling results. The Tories could only regard them as bleak. In the formerly unassailable Tory bastion of Calgary, Special Ed's team had dropped 19 points from January to May - to a measly 40%. In Edmonton, the news was hardly better - the Tories had dropped 8 points to 42%. Worse yet, Ed's disapproval rating in Cowtown had jumped from 18% to 39%. That last number, Cameron colorfully described as the 'first shoe dropping.'

The only good news for the Tories was Health Minister Dave Hancock's announcement that he had convinced the Government to finally ban smoking in public places and work sites, as well as to restrict the number of establishments that may sell tobacco products. Not only did Hancock accomplish this over the strenuous objections of many in the Tory caucus, it is the only coherent piece of important legislation brought forth so far by the Government since Special Ed took power.

In the meantime on the by-election front, Grit candidate Craig Cheffins' campaign to win Ralph Klein's old riding in Calgary Elbow, is humming along nicely. Grit troops from throughout the City and some from as far away as Edmonton are busily knocking on doors, the red signs are out in abundance and the money is rolling in. In Drumheller-Stettler, Tom Dooley, a popular rancher from the riding who pilots his own plane, has his whole family out in force as well as his many friends and supporters. He too senses change in the air, as he cheerfully scours the large riding for Grit support.

And just this Wednesday past, Leader Kevin Taft spoke to 400 of the faithful at a fund-raising dinner at downtown Calgary's Hyatt Regency. His message was simple, effective, thoughtful and well received, and - not to mention - timely. According to Taft, it was high time an Alberta Government had a plan - a plan to manage our wealth for present and future generations. How was it, he asked, that even though the Provincial Government have spent 93% of all oil and gas royalties that it has received in the last 25 years, we still lack schools, hospitals, roads, and affordable housing? And where were the policies on land use, a dwindling water supply and proper municipal funding?

There were Grits in the crowd alright. But there were plenty of old Tories. And they were listening carefully, and clapped vigorously at the end. This is not a dream. It is happening. Special Ed's nightmares continue.